Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5883
Authors: Craig Burnside; Martin Eichenbaum; Isaac Kleshchelski; Sergio Rebelo
Abstract: Currencies that are at a forward premium tend to depreciate. This ?forward-premium puzzle? represents an egregious deviation from uncovered interest parity. We document the properties of returns to currency speculation strategies that exploit this anomaly. The first strategy, known as the carry trade, is widely used by practitioners. This strategy involves selling currencies forward that are at a forward premium and buying currencies forward that are at a forward discount. The second strategy relies on a particular regression to forecast the payoff to selling currencies forward. We show that these strategies yield high Sharpe ratios which are not a compensation for risk. However, these Sharpe ratios do not represent unexploited profit opportunities. In the presence of microstructure frictions, spot and forward exchange rates move against traders as they increase their positions. The resulting ?price pressure? drives a wedge between average and marginal Sharpe ratios. We argue that marginal Sharpe ratios are zero even though average Sharpe ratios are positive.
Keywords: carry trade; exchange rates; uncovered interest parity
JEL Codes: F31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| forward premium (G13) | currency depreciation (F31) |
| carry trade strategy (G15) | returns (Y60) |
| marginal Sharpe ratio is zero (G19) | additional investments do not yield further returns (G31) |
| size of currency bets (F31) | expected total monthly payoff to the carry trade (G15) |