Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5688
Authors: Frederick van der Ploeg
Abstract: The political economy of resource rich countries is surveyed. The empirical evidence suggests that countries with a large share of primary exports in GNP have bad growth records and high inequality, especially if the quality of institutions and the rule of law are bad. The economic argument that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate and a decline of non-resource export sectors may have some relevance. More important, a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing, especially if institutions are bad, and keeps in place bad policies. Optimal resource management may make use of the Hotelling rule and the Hartwick rule. However, a recent World Bank study suggests that resource rich economies squander their natural resource wealth and more often have negative genuine saving rates. Still, countries such as Botswana, Canada, Australia and Norway suggest it is possible to escape the resource curse. Some practical suggestions for a better management of natural resources are offered.
Keywords: corruption; cross-country and panel evidence; debt overhang; dependent economy; dutch disease; genuine saving; growth record; hartwick rule; hotelling rule; institutions; natural resource wealth management; optimal resource depletion; real exchange rate; resource curse; resource dividend; resource fund; rule of law; sustainable development; transparency
JEL Codes: C12; C13; E1; F43; K42; O41; Q3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| natural resource wealth (Q33) | economic performance (P17) |
| weak institutions (O17) | resource curse (Q33) |
| resource curse (Q33) | poor economic outcomes (F63) |
| natural resource wealth + weak institutions (Q33) | low growth and high inequality (O54) |
| resource boom (Q33) | appreciation of real exchange rate (F31) |
| appreciation of real exchange rate (F31) | diminished competitiveness of non-resource sectors (F69) |
| diminished competitiveness of non-resource sectors (F69) | negative impact on economic growth (F69) |
| natural resources + poor governance (Q34) | rent-seeking behavior (D72) |
| rent-seeking behavior (D72) | misallocation of resources (D61) |
| misallocation of resources (D61) | exacerbating inequality and poverty (F63) |
| good institutions (D02) | avoiding resource curse (Q33) |
| failure to follow Hartwick rule (G32) | negative genuine saving rates (E21) |