Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5669
Authors: Esteban F. Klor; Eyal Winter
Abstract: This paper studies the effects that the revelation of information on the electorate's preferences has on voters' turnout decisions. The experimental data show that closeness in the division of preferences induces a significant increase in turnout. Moreover, for closely divided electorates (and only for these electorates) the provision of information significantly raises the participation of subjects supporting the slightly larger team relative to the smaller team. This behaviour contradicts the qualitative predictions of the unique quasi-symmetric Nash equilibrium of the theoretical model. We show that the heterogeneous effect of information on the participation of subjects in different teams is driven by the subjects' (incorrect) beliefs of casting a pivotal vote. Simply put, subjects overestimate the probability of casting a pivotal vote when they belong to the team with a slight majority, and choose the strategy that maximizes their utility based on their inflated probability assessment. Empirical evidence on gubernatorial elections in the U.S. between 1990 and 2005 is consistent with our main experimental result. Namely, we observe that the difference in the actual vote tally between the party leading according to the polls and the other party is larger than the one predicted by the polls only in closely divided electorates. We provide a behavioural model that explains the main findings of our experimental and empirical analyses.
Keywords: Experimental Economics; Public Opinion Polls; Voter Turnout
JEL Codes: C72; C92; D72; H41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| individual beliefs about pivotal voting (D79) | voter turnout (K16) |
| bandwagon effect of polls (D72) | voter participation (K16) |
| difference in actual vote tallies between leading and trailing parties (D72) | voter turnout (K16) |
| closeness of the electorate's preference distribution (D79) | voter turnout (K16) |
| supporting the slightly larger team in closely divided electorates (D79) | voter turnout (K16) |
| information regarding electoral preferences (K16) | voter participation (K16) |