Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5629
Authors: Philippe Aghion; Philippe Bacchetta; Romain Rancière; Kenneth Rogoff
Abstract: This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country's level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for financially advanced countries, there is no significant effect. Our empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000; our results appear robust to time window, alternative measures of financial development and exchange rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment effects of domestic credit market constraints. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.
Keywords: exchange rate regime; financial development; growth
JEL Codes: E44; F33; F43; O42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Exchange rate volatility (F31) | Productivity growth (O49) |
| Financial development (O16) | Impact of exchange rate volatility on productivity growth (F31) |
| Exchange rate regime transition (flexible to rigid) (F31) | Annual growth rates (O49) |
| Exchange rate volatility (in low financial development) (F31) | Reduced growth rates (O49) |
| Financial development (O16) | Gains from rigid exchange rate (F31) |