Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes

Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5531

Authors: Chryssi Giannitsarou

Abstract: It is known that, in the context of a real business cycle model with constant returns to scale and a balanced budget fiscal policy rule, steady state indeterminacy may arise as a result of endogenous labor income tax rates. In this paper, it is shown that when the government finances its expenditures via an endogenous consumption tax instead, there exists a unique steady state which is always saddle-path stable. As a result, combining income taxes with consumption taxes makes the ranges of indeterminacy shrink, thus reducing the possibility of aggregate instability. From a policy perspective, the results provide an additional argument in favor of (less distortionary) consumption taxes in place of capital taxes.

Keywords: balanced budget rules; consumption tax; fiscal policy; indeterminacy

JEL Codes: C62; E62


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
Consumption taxes (H29)Economic stability (E60)
Income taxes (H29)Indeterminacy (D89)
Consumption taxes + endogenous income taxes (H29)Reduced likelihood of aggregate instability (E19)
Higher consumption tax rates (H29)Reduced ranges of indeterminacy (D80)

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