Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5254
Authors: Peter Debaere
Abstract: It is a well-established theoretical result that the trade policy of a large country can directly affect its own and other countries' welfare by affecting international goods prices. However, there exist very few empirical studies that analyze the effect of trade policy on international prices. With detailed data on unit values and tariffs, I show how policy actions in Europe disrupted the global shrimp market in a non-negligible way and set the stage for the current anti-dumping case in the US. The loss of Thailand's preferential trade status in Europe and the international differences in food safety standards during the antibiotics crisis, have shifted esp. Thai, Vietnamese and Chinese shrimp exports away from Europe towards the US in the late 1990s and early 2000s. I document how these shifting markets have decreased US prices for shrimp significantly compared to those in Europe.
Keywords: International Trade
JEL Codes: F1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Loss of Thailand's preferential trade status (F13) | Shift in shrimp exports from Europe to the U.S. (F19) |
| Implementation of strict food safety standards during the antibiotics crisis (D18) | Shift in shrimp exports from Europe to the U.S. (F19) |
| Antibiotics crisis (H12) | Decline in shrimp shipments to Europe (F19) |
| Antibiotics crisis (H12) | Increase in shrimp exports to the U.S. (F10) |
| Tariff policies imposed by the U.S. and the EU (F13) | Altered shrimp prices for exporting countries (F14) |
| Tariff hikes and antibiotics crisis (Q18) | Decrease in U.S. shrimp prices (L11) |