Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5218
Authors: Philippe Martin; Thierry Mayer; Mathias Thoenig
Abstract: This paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between trade and war. We show that the intuition that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is beneficial to all, war reduces trade and leaders take into account the costs of war. When war can occur because of the presence of asymmetric information, the probability of escalation is indeed lower for countries that trade more bilaterally because of the opportunity cost associated with the loss of trade gains. However, countries more open to global trade have a higher probability of war because multilateral trade openness decreases bilateral dependence to any given country. Using a theoretically-based econometric model, we test our predictions on a large dataset of military conflicts in the period 1948-2001. We find strong evidence for the contrasting effects of bilateral and multilateral trade. Our empirical results also confirm our theoretical prediction that multilateral trade openness increases more the probability of war between proximate countries. This may explain why military conflicts have become more localized and less global over time.
Keywords: Globalization; Trade; War
JEL Codes: F12; F15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Bilateral trade (F10) | Probability of conflict (D74) |
| Multilateral trade openness (F13) | Probability of conflict (D74) |
| Trade openness (1960-2000) (F43) | Probability of war (D74) |
| Bilateral trade costs (F10) | Occurrence of war (D74) |
| Multilateral trade costs (F12) | Occurrence of war (D74) |