Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5143
Authors: Ales Cerny; David K. Miles; Lubomir Schmidt
Abstract: Using a calibrated OLG model with several sources of uncertainty we find that the impact of ageing and of reform of social security upon the demand for housing and the level of owner occupation is substantial. The overall structure of household asset holdings ? in particular the split between real and financial assets ? is sensitive to demographics and to the generosity of state run, pay-as-you-go pensions. The interaction between social security reform and housing market conditions is significant and suggests that any changes in pension rules will have substantial knock on effects on the housing market.
Keywords: Housing; OLG Model; Pension Reform; Portfolio Allocation
JEL Codes: C61; G11; H31; H55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| demographic changes (J11) | housing demand (R21) |
| pension reforms (H55) | housing demand (R21) |
| demographic changes (J11) | owner occupation levels (R21) |
| pension reforms (H55) | owner occupation levels (R21) |
| social security reform (H55) | housing market conditions (R31) |
| housing market conditions (R31) | housing demand (R21) |
| housing market conditions (R31) | owner occupation levels (R21) |