Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4928
Authors: Anneclia Disdier; Thierry Mayer
Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between bilateral trade patterns and opinions. It uses the Eurobarometer public opinion surveys published by the European Commission, which provide data on the share of the population in each EU member country in favour of each CEEC joining the EU. Our results first suggest that bilateral opinions have a statistically robust and relatively large effect on imports, even when standard and new covariates capturing proximity between countries are controlled for. We interpret this effect as reflecting a positive impact of ?bilateral affinity? on trade patterns. We also show that it is possible to go some way towards explaining the variance in bilateral opinions among our sample. Last we provide some preliminary attempts to determine causality between bilateral opinions and imports.
Keywords: bilateral opinions; enlargement; gravity
JEL Codes: F10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| bilateral opinions (F55) | imports (F14) |
| imports (F14) | bilateral opinions (F55) |
| historical ties, political proximity, and economic factors (F55) | bilateral opinions (F55) |
| historical military incidents, cultural proximity, and economic expectations (F52) | bilateral opinions (F55) |