Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4856
Authors: Adeline Delavande
Abstract: When choosing a contraception method, women base their decisions on their subjective expectations about the realizations of method-related outcomes. Examples of such outcomes include getting pregnant, contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD) or experiencing side effects. By conducting a face-to-face survey, I have assembled a unique dataset on women?s subjective expectations regarding existing birth control methods. While respondents have, on average, expectations consistent with actual population outcomes, they exhibit substantial heterogeneity in their subjective beliefs, which emphasizes the need to rely on expectations data when conducting inference. I combine expectations data with observed choices to estimate a random utility model of birth control choice, without making any assumption about expectations. Effectiveness, protection against STDs and partner?s disapproval are found to be the most important factors in the decision process. I have also elicited respondents? willingness to pay (WTP) for a hypothetical 100% effective birth control method. Remarkably, the median elicited WTP is very close to the estimated parameter for preferences toward pregnancy outcome expressed in dollars. The reported WTPs are incorporated directly in the estimation to fully account for preferences heterogeneity for getting pregnant.
Keywords: Contraception; Subjective Expectations; Uncertainty
JEL Codes: D81; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Women's beliefs about the effectiveness of contraception (J16) | Women's choice of contraception method (J13) |
| Expectation of getting pregnant while using a particular method (C53) | Choice of that method (C52) |
| Belief in the method's ability to protect against STDs (C90) | Likelihood of choosing that method (C52) |
| Women's perceptions of their partner's disapproval (J12) | Probability of choosing certain methods (C52) |