Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4851
Authors: Michael Lechner; Ruth Miquel; Conny Wunsch
Abstract: Between 1991 and 1997 West Germany spent on average about 3.6bn euro per year on public sector sponsored training programmes for the unemployed. We base our empirical analysis on a new administrative database that plausibly allows for selectivity correction by microeconometric matching methods. We identify the effects of different types of training programmes over a horizon of more than seven years. Using bias corrected weighted multiple neighbours matching we find that all programmes have negative effects in the short run and positive effects over a horizon of about four years. For substantive training programmes with duration of about two years gains in employment probabilities of more than 10% points appear to be sustainable, but come at the price of large negative lock-in effects.
Keywords: Active Labour Market Policy; Matching Estimation; Panel Data; Programme Evaluation
JEL Codes: J68
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Lock-in Effects (E43) | Negative Effects on Employment Probabilities (Short Run) (J63) |
| Shorter Training Programs (M53) | Effective Short-Term Results (C41) |
| Effective Short-Term Results (C41) | Diminished Effects Over Time (C41) |
| Public Sector Sponsored Training Programs (M53) | Negative Effects on Employment Probabilities (Short Run) (J63) |
| Public Sector Sponsored Training Programs (M53) | Positive Effects on Employment Probabilities (Long Run) (J68) |
| Longer Training Programs (M53) | Positive Effects on Employment Probabilities (Over Four Years) (J68) |