Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4714
Authors: Oded Galor
Abstract: The demographic transition that swept the world in the course of the last century has been identified as one of the prime forces in the transition from stagnation to growth. The unprecedented increase in population growth during the early stages of industrialization was ultimately reversed and the demographic transition brought about a significant reduction in fertility rates and population growth in various regions of the world, enabling economies to convert a larger share of the fruits of factor accumulation and technological progress into growth of income per capita. This Paper examines various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition, assessing their empirical validity, and their potential role in the transition from stagnation to growth.
Keywords: demographic transition; evolution; growth; human capital; Malthusian stagnation; technological progress
JEL Codes: J11; J13; O11; O14; O33; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| demographic transition (J11) | reduced fertility rates (J13) |
| reduced fertility rates (J13) | increased income per capita (E25) |
| demographic transition (J11) | increased income per capita (E25) |
| increased human capital (J24) | sustained economic growth (O29) |
| technological progress (O33) | human capital demand (J24) |
| technological progress (O33) | reduced fertility rates (J13) |
| rise in human capital demand (J24) | lower fertility rates (J13) |
| rise in human capital demand (J24) | higher educational attainment (I23) |