Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4689
Authors: Klaus Desmet; Marcel Fafchamps
Abstract: This Paper examines the spatial distribution of jobs across US counties and investigates whether sectoral employment is becoming more or less concentrated. The existing literature has found deconcentration (convergence) of employment across urban areas. Cities only cover a small part of the US though. Using county data, our results indicate that deconcentration is limited to the upper tail of the distribution. The overall picture is one of increasing concentration (divergence). While this seemingly contradicts the well-documented deconcentration in manufacturing, we show that these aggregate employment dynamics are driven by services. Non-service sectors ? such as manufacturing and farming ? are indeed becoming more equally spread across space, but services are becoming increasingly concentrated.
Keywords: economic geography; ergodic distribution; spatial distribution of employment; US counties
JEL Codes: R11; R12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Overall employment is becoming increasingly concentrated (J29) | Employment distribution across US counties (J60) |
| Service sectors are exhibiting increasing concentration (L89) | Employment distribution across US counties (J60) |
| Services, particularly retail and finance, are becoming more concentrated in urban areas (R12) | Employment distribution across US counties (J69) |
| Smaller counties are losing jobs to larger metropolitan areas (R23) | Employment distribution across US counties (J69) |
| Deconcentration convergence in the upper tail of the distribution (D39) | Employment distribution across US counties (J69) |
| Large metropolitan counties lose jobs to intermediate-sized urban counties (R23) | Employment distribution across US counties (J69) |
| Divergence in the distribution of jobs (D39) | Employment distribution across US counties (J69) |