Can Venture Capital Funds Pick Winners? Evidence from Pre-IPO Survival Rates and Post-IPO Performance

Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4672

Authors: Hedva Ber; Yishay Yafeh

Abstract: This Paper evaluates the ability of venture capital funds to identify and bring to market successful high-tech Israeli companies during the period 1991 to 2000. Using a newly constructed and highly detailed database we find that: (1) The probability of survival until the IPO stage is higher for venture-backed companies. (2) According to several different measures, conditional on making an IPO, the post-listing performance of venture-backed companies is not statistically different from that of non-venture companies throughout the 1990s. We interpret this as evidence that an important contribution of the venture capital industry may be in increasing the survival rates of young technology-intensive firms, rather than in identifying high performers.

Keywords: IPO; long-run performance; survival rate; venture capital

JEL Codes: G20; G30


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
Higher probability of survival until IPO stage (D25)Reducing mortality rates among startups (M13)
VC backing (G24)Higher probability of survival until IPO stage (D25)
VC backing (G24)Post-IPO performance (G24)

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