Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4570
Authors: Jorge Restrepo; Michael Spagat
Abstract: Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply against long-run averages since 1988, lower for April-December, 2003; government-guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuously to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-to-guerrilla casualty ratios in clashes falling; government paramilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes poor and worsening; guerrilla paramilitary clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.
Keywords: Colombia; Conflict
JEL Codes: C80; D74
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Uribe's democratic security policy (H56) | decrease in guerrilla attacks (H56) |
| Uribe's democratic security policy (H56) | decrease in paramilitary attacks (H56) |
| decrease in paramilitary attacks (H56) | decrease in civilian killings (H56) |
| Uribe's democratic security policy (H56) | increase in combatant killings (H56) |
| Uribe's democratic security policy (H56) | increase in civilian injuries (H56) |
| decrease in paramilitary attacks (H56) | decrease in government-to-guerrilla casualty ratios (H56) |
| increase in government-paramilitary clashes (H56) | complex interplay of violence (D74) |
| weakening of ELN (I25) | decrease in attacks (H56) |