Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4478
Authors: Lena Cecilia Edlund; Laila Haider; Rohini Pande
Abstract: Political survey data for nine West European countries show that women have become increasingly left-wing compared to men, and that this trend is positively correlated with the decline in marriage in these countries. This pattern is mirrored in German longitudinal data (GSOEP), where transitions out of marriage make women, but not men, significantly more left-leaning. Analysis of public spending data for high-income OECD countries (1980-98) suggests that the political impact of non-marriage extends to the allocation of State resources. We find that the relationship between the decline in marriage and public spending on children is U-shaped, that is, declines in marriage first reduce and then increase such spending. This finding both supports the hypothesis that the decline in marriage lies behind the political gender gap and highlights the salience of popular support, rather than need, in determining public spending.
Keywords: divorce; marriage; age; out-of-wedlock; fertility; political gender gap; public social spending
JEL Codes: H31; H42; J12; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| decline in marriage (J12) | leftward shift in women's political preferences (J16) |
| decline in marriage (J12) | women's support for left-wing parties (J16) |
| 1 percentage point increase in divorce rates (J12) | 0.13 percentage point increase in political gender gap (J16) |
| rise in divorce (J12) | increase in gender gap (J16) |
| 1 percentage point rise in out-of-wedlock fertility (J12) | 0.26 percentage point increase in gender gap (I24) |
| increases in marriage age (J12) | rightward shift in political preferences for both genders (J79) |
| increases in marriage age (J12) | rightward shift in political preferences for men (J79) |