Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP44
Authors: John Ermisch
Abstract: This paper shows how previous fluctuations in births affect the educational system, relative earnings and unemployment rates in the labour market, the number and composition of households, patterns of housing consumption, pressures in health services and personal social services, and finally contribution rates in the state retirement pension system. It also shows how members of large generations may suffer in educational opportunities, in their lifetime earnings prospects and possibly in the pensions that they receive.
Keywords: age distribution; economic consequences; generation size
JEL Codes: 840
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| fluctuations in birth rates (J11) | educational demands (I21) |
| fluctuations in birth rates (J11) | labor market conditions (J29) |
| fluctuations in birth rates (J11) | household formation (J12) |
| size of birth cohorts (J11) | teacher supply (J45) |
| size of birth cohorts (J11) | educational quality (I21) |
| entry of large cohorts (J11) | unemployment rates among young workers (J64) |
| larger generations (J19) | decline in average household size (J12) |
| larger generations (J19) | increase in one-person households (J12) |
| aging population (J14) | pressure on health and personal social services (I19) |
| larger cohorts (C92) | contribution rates to state retirement pension system (H55) |