Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4335
Authors: Jean Imbs
Abstract: Fluctuations in GDP are more synchronized internationally than fluctuations in consumption, and they remain so even between financially-integrated economies, where the ranking should in theory be the reverse. This Paper shows this happens because correlations in GDP fluctuations rise with financial integration. Finance serves to increase international correlations in both consumption and GDP fluctuations, which explains the persistent gap between the two in the data. The positive association between financial integration and GDP correlation constitutes a puzzle, as theory suggests a negative relation if anything. Nevertheless, it prevails in the data even after the effects of finance on trade and specialization are accounted for.
Keywords: financial integration; international business cycles; quantity puzzle; risk sharing
JEL Codes: E44; F30; F41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Financial integration (F30) | Trade and specialization patterns (F12) |
| Financial integration (F30) | GDP correlation (E20) |
| Financial integration (F30) | Consumption correlation (E21) |
| Restrictions on capital flows (F32) | Consumption correlation (E21) |
| Financial integration (F30) | GDP synchronization (F62) |