Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4273
Authors: Orla Doyle; Jan Fidrmuc
Abstract: We analyse support for EU membership as expressed in voting patterns in the candidate countries’ referenda on EU membership, using regional referendum results and individual survey data on voting intentions. We find that favourable individual and regional characteristics are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers are less likely to vote and/or support EU membership. We argue that voters in the candidate countries assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution.
Keywords: EU enlargement; integration; referendum; voting
JEL Codes: J61; P26; P33; Z13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher education (I23) | Support for EU membership (F55) |
| Urban residency (R23) | Support for EU membership (F55) |
| Lower unemployment rates (J68) | Higher voter participation in referenda (D72) |
| Employment in agriculture (J43) | Lower support for EU membership (F55) |
| Favorable socioeconomic characteristics (I24) | Optimism about EU membership benefits (F55) |