Strategic Asset Allocation in a Continuous Time VAR Model

Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4160

Authors: John Y. Campbell; George Chacko; Jorge Rodriguez; Luis M. Viceira

Abstract: This Paper derives an approximate solution to a continuous-time intertemporal portfolio and consumption choice problem. The problem is the continuous-time equivalent of the discrete-time problem studied by Campbell and Viceira (1999), in which the expected excess return on a risky asset follows an AR(1) process, while the riskless interest rate is constant. The Paper also shows how to obtain continuous-time parameters that are consistent with discrete-time econometric estimates. The continuous-time solution is the limit of that of Campbell and Viceira and has the property that conservative long-term investors have a large positive intertemporal hedging demand for stocks.

Keywords: intertemporal hedging; long-term investing; portfolio choice; recursive utility; time aggregation

JEL Codes: G12


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
Predictable variations in stock returns (G17)Changes in intertemporal portfolio and consumption choices (D15)
Time-varying expected returns on stocks (G17)Significant positive intertemporal hedging demand for stocks (D15)
Higher risk aversion (D81)Greater demand for stocks due to hedging motives (G19)
Increased frequency of rebalancing (E63)Continuous-time solution approaches discrete-time solution (C32)

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