Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4064
Authors: Guy Laroque; Bernard Salani
Abstract: Commentators have often linked the increase in births in France since 1995 to more generous family benefits. We study here empirically the link between fertility and financial incentives by estimating and simulating a joint structural model of participation and fertility on a sample of French women. Our results suggest that fertility responds to incentives in a non-negligible way. The results, however, also have some puzzling features: financial incentives appear to have much stronger effects on low-parity births.
Keywords: fertility; incentives
JEL Codes: H30; J10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| allocation parentale d'éducation (APE) reform (J13) | increase in births among eligible women (J19) |
| financial incentives (M52) | low-parity births (J19) |
| allocation parentale d'éducation (APE) reform (J13) | fertility rates (J13) |
| economic variables (P42) | fertility (J13) |
| financial incentives (M52) | sensitivity of fertility to financial incentives for first-born children (J13) |
| financial incentives (M52) | births of rank three or higher (J19) |