Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP4032
Authors: Joseph Francois; Hans van Meijl; Frank van Tongeren
Abstract: We explore the impact of multilateral liberalization, with emphasis on distributional effects across countries. We first develop a realistic ?baseline? that takes into account events such as the entry of China into the WTO and the enlargement of the EU, allowing us to focus on those effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. We then employ a global applied general equilibrium model, featuring capital accumulation and imperfect competition. Our Doha scenarios include agriculture, manufactures, and services liberalization, and trade facilitation. With agglomeration, OECD agricultural liberalization is not uniformly positive for developing countries.
Keywords: CGE Modeling; Doha Round; Services Trade; Trade Facilitation; Trade Liberalization; WTO
JEL Codes: F12; F13; F40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| multilateral trade liberalization (F13) | varied distributional effects across countries (F61) |
| OECD agricultural liberalization (Q18) | increased prices (P22) |
| increased prices (P22) | negative impact on food-importing developing countries (F69) |
| manufacturing tariff liberalization (F13) | positive effects (F69) |
| manufacturing tariff liberalization (F13) | adverse outcomes for countries like China (F69) |
| services liberalization (L86) | static income gains (E25) |
| services liberalization (L86) | notable benefits for countries like India and the United States (O51) |