Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3835
Authors: Yuri Andrienko; Sergei Guriev
Abstract: The Paper studies determinants of internal migration in Russia. Using panel data on gross region-to-region migration flows in 1992-99, we estimate the effect of economic, political and social factors. Although overall migration is rather low, it turns out that its intensity does depend on economic factors even controlling for fixed effects for each origin-destination pair. People move from poorer and job-scarce regions with worse public good provision to ones that are richer and more prosperous both in terms of employment prospects and public goods. Migration is, however, constrained by the lack of liquidity; for the poorest regions, an increase in income raises rather than decreases emigration. Our estimates imply that up to a third of Russian regions are locked in poverty traps.
Keywords: gravity model; internal migration; liquidity constraints; Russia's transition
JEL Codes: J61; P23; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic performance (P17) | internal migration (F22) |
| public goods provision (H41) | internal migration (F22) |
| historical legacies (B15) | internal migration (F22) |
| income (E25) | internal migration (F22) |
| higher income in poorer regions (R11) | outmigration (F22) |
| unemployment rates (J64) | internal migration (F22) |
| public goods provision (H41) | migration flows (F22) |
| regional policies (R50) | internal migration (F22) |