Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3801
Authors: Orla Doyle; Jan Fidrmuc
Abstract: How does implementing harsh economic reforms influence voting behaviour? And how do the patterns of political support change over the course of transition? We analyse these issues using data from a sequence of 11 opinion surveys conducted in the Czech Republic between 1990-98. We find that - while voters’ ideological position and some socio-economic characteristics, such as age and education - tend to have a stable impact on voting behaviour over time, economic outcomes, such as employment status, income and unemployment, only affect political preferences in the later stages of the transition. This is consistent with the predictions of the theoretical literature on political constraints during transition – as the uncertainty about reform’s outcomes dissipates, constituencies of winners and losers emerge. The winners are the young, educated, high-wage earners and workers employed in de novo private firms. The losers, on the other hand, are the elderly, low-skilled and low-wage workers and the unemployed. The balance between these two constituencies then determines the support for reform-minded and left-wing parties at election time.
Keywords: political constraints; political support; transition; voting
JEL Codes: D72; E61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Economic outcomes such as employment status and income (E24) | Voting behavior (D72) |
| Being employed in a private firm (L84) | Voting for left-wing parties (D72) |
| Higher personal income (D31) | Supporting left-wing opposition parties (P37) |
| Living in districts with high unemployment (R23) | Supporting left-wing opposition parties (P37) |
| The balance between constituencies of winners and losers (D72) | Support for reform-minded and left-wing parties (E69) |