Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP378
Authors: Jorge Braga de Macedo
Abstract: This paper reviews the traditional ambiguity of Portuguese policy towards external liberalization. Product and labour markets have become segmented as a result of the soft budget constraint faced by large corporations and job protection in the public sector. Relaxation of entry requirements into banking since 1985 has made it more difficult for the government to use the banks as implicit tax collectors. But the frozen state of banking and a disguised fiscal policy still constrain monetary and exchange rate policy. Until a credible Multi-Annual Fiscal Adjustment Strategy is established, the disinflation necessary to allow active monetary policy and entry into the EMS will not be achieved.
Keywords: Portugal; EC integration; Dualism; Fiscal adjustment
JEL Codes: 122; 300; 400; 610
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Fiscal adjustment strategy (E63) | Monetary policy effectiveness (E52) |
| Banking regulation changes (G28) | Fiscal policy efficacy (E62) |
| Lack of credible fiscal adjustment strategy (E62) | Disinflation to support monetary policy (E31) |
| Historical regulatory practices (G18) | Current economic structures (P19) |