Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3759
Authors: Ashoka Mody; Mark P. Taylor
Abstract: We pursue the idea that a region presents a common ?prospectus? to investors and lenders. Specifically, we explore whether investors respond to regional developments, rather than to country-specific fundamentals. Such behaviour may be appropriate where regions are identified by common development strategies and economic policies, and the costs of country-specific analysis exceed the returns. Using dynamic factor analysis, we estimate a common regional component of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) as a measure of regional vulnerability. We find that a high level of regional external liabilities and exuberance in domestic stock and credit markets generates regional vulnerabilities, which are heightened when the US High Yield Index is also on the rise. Country-specific movements of the EMPI are also explained by the same regional indicators rather than by the country-specific components of these indicators.
Keywords: Contagion; Currency Crisis; Dynamic Factor Analysis; Vulnerability
JEL Codes: F31; F32; F36
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| external liabilities (F34) | regional vulnerability (R11) |
| domestic credit growth (E51) | regional vulnerability (R11) |
| US high yield spread (G12) | regional vulnerability (R11) |
| regional indicators (R10) | EMPI (L53) |
| US high yield index rises (G12) | regional vulnerability (R11) |
| regional stress index (R50) | macroeconomic measures (E60) |