Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3662
Authors: David Greenaway; Richard Upward; Peter Wright
Abstract: Conventional methods for analysing worker flows often focus on gross flows or transition probabilities. This is not necessarily informative for identifying the scale of labour ?adjustment? in an economy in the sense of the expansion and decline of industries. We develop a method that relates the individual characteristics of workers to net, rather than gross flows. Our method also allows for interactions between the regional and sectoral mobility of labour. We apply this to the UK using data from the Labour Force Survey over a period of significant structural change, and quantify the relative importance of education and housing tenure on regional and sectoral mobility.
Keywords: Adjustment; Mobility
JEL Codes: C25; J60; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher educational qualifications (I23) | Increased likelihood of moving from declining sectors to expanding sectors (J62) |
| Lack of formal qualifications (Y40) | Decreased likelihood of moving from expanding sectors to declining sectors (J69) |
| Housing tenure (R21) | Mobility between sectors (J62) |
| Private renters (R21) | Increased mobility between sectors (J62) |
| Private renters (R21) | Increased likelihood of experiencing unemployment (J64) |