Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3567
Authors: Martin Flodn
Abstract: In the coming decades, the share of people in working age will fall significantly in most developed countries. According to optimal taxation theory, public debts should be reduced before the baby-boom generation retires. I find that if debts are instead maintained at the current levels, welfare may be reduced substantially in countries with a large public sector and/or a large demographic change. Furthermore, since the population ageing will be less dramatic in the United States than in Europe, capital will move from Europe to the United States. These capital movements will facilitate the US demographic transition but aggravate the transition in most European countries.
Keywords: demographics; international capital flows; optimal taxation; public debt
JEL Codes: E62; F21; H21; H60; J18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| public debt (H63) | welfare (I38) |
| demographic transitions (J11) | capital flows (F32) |
| demographic transitions (J11) | capital movement (F21) |
| capital movement (F21) | U.S. demographic transition (J11) |
| capital movement (F21) | European demographic transition (J11) |