Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3538
Authors: Andrew K. Rose
Abstract: This Paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard ?gravity? model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over fifty years and 175 countries. Despite an extensive search, I am basically unable to find positive significant effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.
Keywords: bilateral; empirical; GATT; gravity; GSP; international; multilateral; panel
JEL Codes: F13; F15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| GATT/WTO membership (F13) | trade volume (F10) |
| GSP (Z28) | trade volume (F10) |