Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3449
Authors: Jaime de Melo; Florence Miguet; Tobias Müller
Abstract: The issue of the free movement of persons occupies center stage in the negotiations on EU enlargement. Opinion polls and household surveys reveal that a majority of EU citizens are fearful of the consequences of the free movement of persons. Influenced by these surveys, the EU Commission and several studies have reviewed the pros and cons of alternative flexible transitional arrangement proposals ranging from the current bilateral guest-worker arrangements practiced by some EU members to the establishment of fixed quotas during a limited period of time. These suggestions are reminiscent of the Swiss experience with immigration. At the same time, under the system of direct democracy, the Swiss electorate has voted regularly since 1970 on the policies towards immigrants and on the shape of immigration policy. The Paper reviews the Swiss experience with immigration policy and draws on the unique direct-democracy setting to bypass the problem of ?hypothetical bias? plaguing the analysis of conventional survey data. Determinants of attitudes towards immigration are analysed using individual-level survey data for 2000.
Keywords: Direct democracy; Hypothetical bias; Immigration
JEL Codes: D72; F22; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Segmented labor markets (J42) | support for skill qualifications policy for immigrants (J68) |
| Economic interests (F52) | support for immigration policies (K37) |
| Restricting guestworker mobility to nontraded sectors (J61) | support for immigration (K37) |
| Segmented labor markets (J42) | support for discriminatory migration policy (J18) |
| Discriminatory migration policy (J18) | public support (H49) |
| Swiss direct democracy model (D72) | empirical insights into voting behavior (D72) |
| Actual voting outcomes (D72) | divergence from public opinion polls (D72) |
| Rejection of popular initiative (D72) | favorable public attitude (P17) |