Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3427
Authors: Stefan Gerlach; Petra Gerlach-Kristen
Abstract: This Paper uses annual data spanning 1870 to 1930 on a set of variables correlated with business conditions to construct an index of real economic activity in Switzerland. We extract an estimate of the common component of the data series using principal components analysis and the unobservable variables approach proposed by Stock and Watson (1989, 1991). The resulting index is similar to, but displays more variation over time than, that constructed by Andrist, Anderson and Williams (2000).
Keywords: coincident indicator; principal components; Swiss economic history
JEL Codes: E32; N13; N14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| real trade flows (F19) | economic activity (E20) |
| telephone and postal receipts (L87) | economic activity (E20) |
| principal components index (C43) | economic fluctuations (E32) |
| constructed indices (C43) | historical events (N94) |