Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3371
Authors: Martina Behm; Hans Peter Grüner
Abstract: We take up the discussion started by Condorcet on which voting system yields the highest probability that a good decision is taken. When regional information shocks are taken into account, an Electoral College system has advantages over simple majority vote under certain conditions: The probability that the utility-maximizing candidate wins is higher in the Electoral College system if the size of the adverse regional information shock is large.
Keywords: Electoral College; Popular Vote; Regional Information
JEL Codes: D80; H11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Electoral College System (D72) | Probability of Utility-Maximizing Candidate Winning (D79) |
| Large Adverse Regional Information Shocks (R11) | Misidentification of Preferred Candidate (D79) |
| Misidentification of Preferred Candidate (D79) | Different Outcomes in Voting Systems (D72) |
| Electoral College System (D72) | Robustness Under Extreme Shocks (E32) |
| Small Regional Shocks (R11) | Optimal Result from Popular Vote System (D79) |