Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3298
Authors: Jochen Kluve; Hartmut Lehmann; Christoph M. Schmidt
Abstract: This Paper estimates causal effects of two Polish active labour market policies – Training and Intervention Works – on employment probabilities. Utilizing data from the 18th wave of the Polish Labor Force Survey we discuss three stages of an appropriately designed exact matching procedure. The approach is illustrated using the estimated propensity score as a summary measure of balance. Distributions of pre-treatment labour market status histories show the decisive relevance of employment indicators as determinants of programme participation – a point often ignored in evaluation research. We implement a conditional difference-in-differences estimator of treatment effects based on these individual trinomial sequences of pre-treatment labour market status. Our findings suggest that Training raises employment probability, while Intervention Works seems to lead to a negative treatment effect for men. Furthermore, we find that appropriate subdivision of the matched sample for conditional treatment effect estimation can add considerable insight to the interpretation of results.
Keywords: active labour market policy; determinants of programme participation; exact matching; propensity score; transition
JEL Codes: C49; J68
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Training (M53) | Employment Probability (J68) |
| Intervention Works (I38) | Employment Probability (J68) |
| Training Participation (M53) | Improved Employment Outcomes (J68) |
| Intervention Works (for Men) (H84) | Lower Employment Probability (J79) |
| Poor Performance of Male Participants (D29) | Negative Effect of Intervention Works (I38) |