Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3170
Authors: Kym Anderson; Shunli Yao
Abstract: If South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are to become constructively engaged in the next attempt by World Trade Organization (WTO) members to liberalize trade multilaterally, they need to be convinced that there will be sufficient gains from trade reform to warrant the inevitable costs of negotiation and adjustment. This Paper provides new estimates of the likely economic effects on their economies of further liberalizing world trade post-Uruguay Round. The results show that the developing countries of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa have much to gain from taking part in the next round. Those gains will be far greater the more those countries are willing to embrace reform at home so as to enable their firms to take greatest advantage of the opportunities provided by the opening up of markets abroad.
Keywords: developing country gains; multilateral negotiations; trade policy; WTO
JEL Codes: F13; F15; F17; O19
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Trade policy reform in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (F13) | Economic growth (O49) |
| Participation in trade liberalization (F13) | Economic benefits (O22) |
| Domestic reforms in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (O17) | Economic benefits from WTO round (F69) |
| Participation in trade liberalization (F13) | Global welfare (I31) |
| Lack of participation in trade liberalization (F13) | Adverse terms of trade changes in Sub-Saharan Africa (O55) |
| More sectors involved in reform (E69) | Greater economic gain (F69) |