Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP3124
Authors: David Pottebaum; Ravi Kanbur
Abstract: This Paper establishes and explores the implications of a somewhat surprising empirical finding. Although civil war adversely affects the performance of social indicators in general, poorer countries lose less, in absolute and relative terms, than richer countries. It is argued that the explanation may lie in the extent to which richer countries have better social (and economic) indicators because of more public goods, and adaptation of economic and social mechanisms to the greater abundance of public goods such as physical infrastructure. Civil war destroys public goods, and therefore damages disproportionately the countries most dependent on them. A further implication of this framework is that the post-conflict rebound in social indicators should be relatively stronger in poorer countries. The data bear out this prediction. Our results should not of course be read as implying that poorer countries need less support to avoid civil war and to cope with its aftermath. Although their losses are less, they start from a lower base; so even small declines severely impact human well being. Properly understood, our results highlight the central role that public goods play in underpinning the social (and economic) wealth of nations
Keywords: civil war; postconflict; public goods; social indicators
JEL Codes: H41; O10; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Civil war (D74) | Destruction of public goods (H40) |
| Destruction of public goods (H40) | Adverse effects on social indicators (I14) |
| Civil war (D74) | Adverse effects on social indicators (I14) |
| Wealthier countries (I39) | Greater relative loss in social indicators during civil war (I14) |
| Post-conflict recovery (F51) | Stronger in poorer countries (F63) |
| Historical context of conflict (F51) | Current social indicators (P36) |