Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP2780
Authors: Monika Btler
Abstract: In 1998, the Swiss voters approved of an increase in female retirement age from 62 to 64. The referendum, being on a single issue only, offers a unique opportunity to explore the political feasibility of pension reforms and to apply theoretical models of life-cycle decision making. Estimates carried out with municipality data suggest that the outcome of the vote conforms relatively well with predictions drawn from a theoretical simulation study. There are, however, surprising gender differences even in married couples. Young agents, married middle-aged and all elderly men favour an increase in female retirement age, while middle-aged and elderly women strongly oppose it. Richer communities and those with a high proportion of self-employed or a low fraction of blue-collar workers are more likely to opt for a higher retirement age. Ideological preferences and regional differences also play a considerable role.
Keywords: female retirement age; lifecycle decision making; social security reforms
JEL Codes: D72; D91; H55; J18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| young agents (L85) | favor an increase in the female retirement age (J26) |
| married middle-aged men (J12) | favor an increase in the female retirement age (J26) |
| elderly men (J14) | favor an increase in the female retirement age (J26) |
| middle-aged women (J14) | oppose an increase in the female retirement age (J26) |
| elderly women (J14) | oppose an increase in the female retirement age (J26) |
| community income (P32) | support an increase in the female retirement age (J26) |
| high proportion of self-employed individuals (P42) | support an increase in the female retirement age (J26) |