Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP2714
Authors: Jean-Marie Grether; Jaime de Melo; Tobias Müller
Abstract: Determinants of national policies towards immigration are analysed in the context of an economy open to international trade. Arguments for the existence of an ?immigration surplus? are reviewed and followed by an interpretative survey of the principal contributions of the political economy literature, emphasising the role of the determinants of individual preferences in a direct democracy framework. A median voter model is grafted on several variants of a specific-factor open-economy model to discuss several recent changes in attitudes towards immigration (a stiffened stance, especially towards the unskilled) and in national policies (?melting-pot? vs. guest-worker programs, coexistence of legal and illegal immigrants, lax enforcement towards illegals).
Keywords: direct democracy; international migration
JEL Codes: D72; F22; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Immigration (F22) | Income of skilled and unskilled households (J31) |
| Income of skilled and unskilled households (J31) | Preferences towards immigration (K37) |
| Preferences towards immigration (K37) | Attitude of median native voter (D72) |
| Decline in share of unskilled households (F66) | Shift in median native voter's attitude towards unskilled immigration (K37) |
| Higher level of capital ownership among immigrants (F21) | More favorable attitudes towards immigration (K37) |
| Type of immigration system (guest worker vs. melting pot) (F22) | Voter preferences towards immigration (K37) |
| Guest worker system (J68) | Likelihood of natives obtaining jobs in primary sectors (J68) |