Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP2494
Authors: Gerard J. van den Berg; Bas van der Klaauw
Abstract: We combine micro and macro unemployment duration data to study the effects of the business cycle on the outflow from unemployment. We allow the cycle to affect individual exit probabilities of unemployed workers as well as the composition of the total inflow into unemployment. We estimate the model using (micro) survey data and (macro) administrative data from France. The distribution of the inflow composition is estimated along with the other parameters. The estimation method deals with differences between the micro and macro unemployment definitions. The results also show to what extent the unemployment duration distributions corresponding to the two definitions can be described by the same model.
Keywords: Business Cycle; Duration Dependence; Heterogeneity; Seasons; Unemployment Composition; Unemployment Definition
JEL Codes: C41; C51; E24; J64
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| business cycle (E32) | individual exit probabilities (C29) |
| individual exit probabilities (C29) | average duration of unemployment (J64) |
| business cycle (E32) | average duration of unemployment (J64) |
| inflow composition (F21) | average duration of unemployment (J64) |