Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP2473
Authors: Jean Imbs
Abstract: This paper argues that economic structure is a robust determinant of the OECD business cycle. Countries that share similar manufacturing sectors are shown to display more synchronized business cycles. Interestingly, the well-established rule of trade impacting on rich countries' business cycles is thus mitigated, and its direct impact lessened. The structure of sectoral output also goes some way towards explaining idiosyncracies in the UK business cycle.
Keywords: trade; economic structure; international business cycles
JEL Codes: E32; F41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic structure (L16) | cycle synchronization (E32) |
| sectoral similarities (L52) | cycle synchronization (E32) |
| trade intensity (F14) | cycle synchronization (E32) |
| sectoral specialization (L52) | cycle synchronization (E32) |
| changes in specialization patterns (J62) | cycle synchronization (E32) |