Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP2225
Authors: Richard Portes; Hélène Rey
Abstract: We apply a new approach to a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross-border equity flows between 14 countries, 1989-96. The remarkably good results have strong implications for theories of asset trade. We find that the geography of information heavily determines the pattern of international transactions.Our model integrates elements of the finance literature on portfolio composition and the international macroeconomics and asset trade literature. Gross asset flows depend on market size in both source and destination country as well as trading costs, in which both information and the transaction technology play a role. The resulting augmented 'gravity' equation has equity market capitalisation representing market size and distance proxying some informational asymmetries, as well as a variable representing openness of each economy. But other variables explicitly represent information transmission (telephone call traffic and multinational bank branches), an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors (degree of insider trading), and the efficiency of transactions ('financial market sophistication').This equation accounts for almost 70% of the variance of the transaction flows. Dummy variables (adjacency, language, currency or trade bloc, and a 'major financial centre' effect) do not improve the results, nor does a variable representing destination country stock market returns. The key role of informational asymmetries is confirmed. Our information transmission variables also substantially improve standard gravity equations for trade in goods.
Keywords: equity flows; cross-border portfolio investment; information asymmetries; gravity model
JEL Codes: F12; F21; F30
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| greater information availability (D83) | increased trading activity by foreign investors (G15) |
| market size in source and destination countries (F10) | gross asset flows (F21) |
| distance (R12) | gross asset flows (F21) |
| telephone call traffic (L96) | gross asset flows (F21) |
| number of multinational bank branches (F23) | gross asset flows (F21) |
| distance (R12) | information asymmetries (D82) |
| information asymmetries (D82) | gross asset flows (F21) |