Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP213
Authors: Eric De Cooman; John Ermisch; Heather Joshi
Abstract: In this paper we explore two econometric approaches to data on parity-specific birth rates in England and Wales during the postwar period. Both approaches can accommodate complex dynamic adjustments within birth rates and focus on adjustments of fertility behavior in response to changes in certain labor market variables: the ratio of women's to men's wages, a cohort's long-term level of female attachment to the labor market, the relative size of generations, price inflation, real earnings and unemployment. The first approach uses a panel data estimator, while the second divides the data into time-series for five-year age groups. The latter method appears more promising for short-run forecasting.
Keywords: labour market influences on fertility; forecasting; panel data estimators; parity-specific birth rates
JEL Codes: 215; 841; 824
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| higher women's real wages (J39) | birth rate (women in their twenties) (J13) |
| higher men's wages (J31) | birth rate (women in their twenties) (J13) |
| larger generation sizes (C55) | birth rate (women in their twenties) (J13) |
| changes in women's relative wages during the 1970s (J31) | birth rate (J11) |
| opportunity cost of childbearing (J13) | fertility (J13) |