Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP2082
Authors: Oded Galor; David N. Weil
Abstract: This paper examines the historical evolution of the relationship between population growth, technological change, and the standard of living. It considers several unified models that encompass the transition between three distinct regimes that have characterized the process of economic development: ``The Malthusian Regime," ``The Post-Malthusian Regime," and the ``Modern Growth Regime". We view the unified modeling of this long transition process - from thousand of years of Malthusian stagnation through the demographic transition to modern growth - as one of the most significant research challenges facing economists interested in growth and development.
Keywords: fertility; growth; technological change; Malthusian trap; demographic transition; population growth
JEL Codes: J13; O11; O33; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Malthusian regime (E11) | acceleration in technological progress (O33) |
| acceleration in technological progress (O33) | increase in income per capita (O49) |
| demographic transition (J11) | decline in population growth rates (J11) |
| increase in income per capita (O49) | shift from positive to negative correlation with population growth (J11) |
| increased investments in human capital (J24) | reduction in fertility rates (J13) |
| increased life expectancy and mortality decline (I14) | adjustment in fertility choices (J13) |
| gender gap in wages (J31) | reduced fertility rates (J13) |
| rising female wages (J39) | increased opportunity costs associated with childbearing (J13) |