Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP2071
Authors: Andrew Scott; Harald Uhlig
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to construct theoretical models which help to shed light on the recent criticisms of volatile investment flows. We do not make any empirical attempt to establish the existence or gauge the importance of the adverse effects of volatile investment flows nor do we make any implicit claims regarding the role of such flows in recent exchange rate crises. Instead we simply assume the existence of fickle outside investors and examine the consequences for the economy in the context of two partial equilibrium endogenous growth models.In our first model, the scale of fickle outside investment funds traces out a mean-variance tradeoff for the growth rate of the economy. In particular, the volatility of these funds dissuades risk averse agents from risky entrepreneural activities. This result opens up the possibility that some regulation of outside investment may increase growth. Our second model involves increasing returns and multiple equilibria. In the context of this model fickle investor behaviour can have very persistent and substantial effects on both output growth and volatility.
Keywords: growth; fickle investors; current account liberalization; volatility; Asian crisis; mean-variance tradeoff; multiple equilibria
JEL Codes: D92; E32; E44; F21; F32; F43; G15; O16; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increase in outside investment (F21) | mean-variance tradeoff for the growth rate of the economy (O41) |
| increase in outside investment (F21) | increased expectations of equity prices (G12) |
| increase in outside investment (F21) | increased volatility of equity prices (G19) |
| increased volatility of equity prices (G19) | discouragement of risk-averse agents from entrepreneurial activities (D82) |
| increase in reliance on external funds (F65) | economic growth (hump-shaped relationship) (O49) |
| increase in reliance on external funds (F65) | declining growth rates (beyond a certain threshold) (O49) |
| fickle investor behavior (G41) | persistent and substantial effects on output growth (F62) |
| fickle investor behavior (G41) | persistent and substantial effects on volatility (C58) |
| absence of fickle investors (G31) | more stable output growth (E23) |