Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP2000
Authors: Patrick A. Puhani
Abstract: We estimate the employment effects of training, intervention works (subsidized employment) and public works programmes in Poland. The analysis is based on retrospective monthly calendar information on the labour force state and Active Labour Market Programme (ALMP) participation between January 1992 and August 1996. The data are obtained from the Polish Labour Force Survey of August 1996 and its Supplement on Labour Market Policies. Because there is no general agreement on the appropriate evaluation methodology when working with non-experimental data, we use two widely applied approaches to identify causal effects. First, non-parametric estimates of the programme effects are obtained on the basis of matched samples. Second, we use traditional econometric modelling in the form of duration models with unobserved individual heterogeneity. We find that training improves the employment opportunities of both men and women, whereas intervention and public works do not: intervention works prolong unemployment for both genders as do public works for men. The number of observations on women in public works is too small to make a statistically safe statement. In general, all ALMP effects are larger in absolute size for men than for women.
Keywords: evaluation; microeconometrics; active labour market policy; Poland
JEL Codes: J64; J68
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| training programs (M53) | employment opportunities (J68) |
| training programs (M53) | unemployment rates for men (J64) |
| training programs (M53) | unemployment rates for women (J21) |
| intervention works (I24) | employment outcomes (J68) |
| intervention works (I24) | unemployment duration (J64) |
| public works programs (H54) | employment outcomes (J68) |
| public works programs (H54) | unemployment duration (J64) |