Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP1981
Authors: Oded Galor; David N. Weil
Abstract: This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population, so that output per capita is stable around a constant level. In the post-Malthusian regime, the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output, but income per capita does rise slowly. The economy endogenously undergoes a demographic transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed. In the Modern Growth regime, population growth is moderate and income per capita rises rapidly.
Keywords: fertility; growth; technological change; Malthusian trap; demographic transition; population growth
JEL Codes: J13; O11; O33; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| income per capita (D31) | population growth (J11) |
| population growth (J11) | technological progress (O33) |
| technological progress (O33) | output growth (O40) |
| output growth (O40) | population growth (J11) |
| technological progress (O33) | population growth (J11) |
| technological progress (O33) | fertility preferences (J13) |
| income per capita (D31) | fertility preferences (J13) |
| transition from Malthusian to modern growth regime (O41) | population growth (J11) |