Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP18599
Authors: Nathaniel Posner; Andrey Simonov; Kellen Mrkva; Eric Johnson
Abstract: In the months before the 2020 U.S. election, several political campaign websites added pre-checked boxes (defaults), automatically making all donations into recurring weekly contributions unless donors unchecked them. Since these changes occurred at different times for different campaigns, we use a staggered difference-in-differences design to measure the causal effects of defaults on donors’ behavior. We estimate that defaults increased campaign donations by over $43 million while increasing requested refunds by almost $3 million. The weekly default only impacted weekly recurring donations, and not other donations, suggesting that donors may not have intended to make weekly donations. The longer defaults were displayed, the more money campaigns raised through weekly donations. Donors did not compensate by changing the amount they donated. We found that the default had a larger impact on smaller donors and on donors who had no prior experience with defaults, causing them to start more chains and donate a larger proportion of their money through weekly recurring donations.
Keywords: Elections; Campaign Donations; Default Effects; Choice Architecture; Dark Patterns
JEL Codes: D72; M31; P16; P48
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| introduction of weekly recurring donation defaults (D64) | total campaign donations (D79) |
| introduction of weekly recurring donation defaults (D64) | chains of recurring donations (D64) |
| introduction of weekly recurring donation defaults (D64) | requested refunds (H23) |
| longer exposure to the default (C41) | larger increases in donations (D64) |
| introduction of weekly recurring donation defaults (D64) | non-recurring donations (D64) |