Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP18559
Authors: Marco Alfano; Joseph Simon Goerlach
Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of exposure to terrorist violence on education. Since terrorists may choose targets endogenously, we construct a set of novel instruments. To that end, we leverage exogenous variation from a local terrorist group's revenues and its affiliation with al-Qaeda. Across several Kenyan datasets we find that attacks suppress school enrolment more than predicted by difference-in-differences-type estimators. This indicates that terrorists target areas experiencing unobserved, positive shocks. Evidence suggests fears and concerns as mechanisms of impact, rather than educational supply.
Keywords: instrumental variables
JEL Codes: D74; I25; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Terrorist attacks (H56) | School attendance (I21) |
| Terrorist attacks (H56) | School enrolment (I21) |
| Terrorist attacks (H56) | Fears and concerns (I19) |
| Fears and concerns (I19) | School attendance (I21) |
| Fears and concerns (I19) | School enrolment (I21) |
| Al-Shabaab's revenue sources (H27) | Terrorist attacks (H56) |