Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP18492
Authors: Tanguy Bernard; Stefan Dercon; Kate Orkin; Giulio Schinaia; Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
Abstract: Aspirations have been posited to condition the future-oriented choices of individuals and thus can play a role in the persistence of poverty or the effort to break out of it. In a randomised control trial in remote, rural Ethiopia, we assess the effectiveness of an intervention seeking to change how poor people perceive their future opportunities, alter their aspirations and, through that, modify their investment decisions. A treatment group was shown video documentaries about the lives of individuals from similar communities who escaped poverty through their own efforts and, as such, can serve as role models. Five years after the screening took place, the treated households increased future-oriented investments in agriculture and in children’s education. The results can be explained by the increase in aspirations in terms of lifetime goals. Overall, this research uniquely provides evidence that a light-touch behavioural intervention can have persistent economic impacts on a poor population.
Keywords: Investment; Role Models; Aspirations
JEL Codes: D03; I31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| intervention (D74) | increased aspirations (I14) |
| increased aspirations (I14) | increased future-oriented investments in agriculture (Q14) |
| increased aspirations (I14) | increased educational expenditures (H52) |
| increased aspirations (I14) | improved living standards (I31) |
| increased aspirations (I14) | better food security (Q18) |
| increased aspirations (I14) | increased durable goods holdings (E20) |
| increased aspirations (I14) | increased labor supply (J20) |
| intervention (D74) | improved economic behavior (E70) |