Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP18277
Authors: Stefan Bauernschuster; Matthias Blum; Erik Hornung; Christoph Koenig
Abstract: How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893--1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.
Keywords: pandemics; elections; health; voting behavior
JEL Codes: D72; I18; N34; H51
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Excess mortality from the 1918 influenza pandemic (I12) | electoral outcomes in Weimar Germany (D72) |
| Higher influenza mortality (I12) | significant and lasting shift in electoral support towards left-wing parties (P27) |
| Pandemic heightened the salience of public health policy (I14) | voters reward parties perceived as competent in health issues (D72) |
| Electoral changes (K16) | not explained by economic hardship or punishment of incumbents (P37) |
| Increase in left-wing voting (K16) | associated with parties addressing public health concerns (I19) |