Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP18178
Authors: David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon Hanson
Abstract: Previous research finds that the greater geographic mobility of foreign than native-born workers following economic shocks helps to facilitate local labor market adjustment to shifting regional economic conditions. We examine the role that immigration may have played in enabling U.S. commuting zones to respond to manufacturing job loss caused by import competition from China. Although population headcounts of the foreign-born fell by more than those of the native-born in regions exposed to the China trade shock, the overall contribution of immigration to labor market adjustment in this episode was small. Because most U.S. immigrants arrived in the country after manufacturing regions were already mature, few took up jobs in industriesthat would later see increased import penetration from China. The foreign-born share of the working-age population in regions with high trade exposure was only three-fifths that in regions with low exposure. Immigration thus appears more likely to aid adjustment to cyclical shocks, in which job loss occurs in regions that had recent booms in hiring, rather than facilitatingadjustment to secular regional decline, in which hiring booms occurred in the more distant past.
Keywords: Immigration; Import Competition; Geographic Labor Mobility; Manufacturing Decline; Job Loss
JEL Codes: E24; F14; F16; J23; J31; L60; O47; R12; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Import competition from China (F14) | Reduction in foreign-born workers population in US commuting zones (CZs) (J69) |
| Import competition from China (F14) | Reduction in native-born workers population in US commuting zones (CZs) (J69) |
| Trade exposure (F14) | Reduction in foreign-born population with high school education or less (J69) |
| Trade exposure (F14) | Reduction in employment-population ratios of foreign-born workers (J69) |
| Trade exposure (F14) | Reduction in employment-population ratios of native-born workers (J69) |
| Immigration (F22) | Facilitation of adjustment to cyclical shocks (E32) |
| Immigration (F22) | Limited contribution to labor market adjustment (J68) |